The Resta Paradox: On The Perception of The Likelihood of Rare Events

Genetic counselors – and their clients – tend to make a big to-do about numbers. We expend a disproportionate amount of energy  calculating, reciting, and explicating numbers such as the complication rate of amniocentesis, the likelihood of Down syndrome, bayesian probabilities, or empirical recurrence risks. Sometimes we even pull them out of thin air. Those statistics pass through patients’ psychological, cultural, social, and educational filters and out of the other side comes a figure that more often than not bears little resemblance to the number that went in.

Counseling strategies attempt to reduce anxiety by downplaying large numbers when it comes to undesirable outcomes (“A one in four recurrence risk means a 75% chance that it will not happen again”) and reframing small numbers for patients who perceive a low likelihood outcome, such as 1/500, to be a very “high” number (“One in five hundred means there is over a 99% chance this will not happen. If you were to score a 99+% on a difficult test in school, you would be very happy. That’s an A+!”).

But reframing can sometimes backfire. For many patients, rare events are paradoxically perceived to be more likely to occur than high likelihood events. The rarer the event, the more some patients are convinced that it will happen to them. This phenomenon, which I have immodestly labeled The Resta Paradox,* is a sort of corollary to Murphy’s Law.

Just about every genetic counselor has heard some variation of this statement “I know that one in 50,000 is pretty unlikely, but if it’s going to happen to someone, it’s going to happen to me.” To demonstrate how he or she is one of those people whom the Gods have chosen to be the object of their malefic whims, patients will then cite a litany of rare catastrophes that have previously befallen them:

  • “My surgeon said she never had a patient develop a complication after surgery, but I got an infection.”
  • “One time, a piece of an airplane broke off, fell put out of the sky and crushed my car.”
  • “I took lisinopril and developed a never before reported side effect and I was in the hospital for a week. They even wrote an article about me” (The patient will then look at you, hoping that you will say that you were familiar with the article).

The seemingly contradictory availability heuristic for these patients is “Rare events have happened to me before. Therefore, I am likely to experience rare events in the future.”

In my favorite example of how reframing can sometimes spectacularly go awry, a colleague once described to me a genetic counseling session in which she told the patient that the risk of recurrence of the particular disorder was as likely as getting struck by lightning. The patient replied “As a matter of fact, I have been struck by lightning.”

Such magical thinking is surprisingly common. It does not necessarily mean that a patient suffers from innumeracy. Most people are perfectly capable of balancing their checking accounts, completing income tax forms, and accurately summing long columns of numbers. Complications arise, though, when patients try to assign an emotional value to a number or a risk, especially when trying to make a complex medical decision.

I have also encountered The Resta Paradox among patients who make their living off of understanding numbers, such as statisticians, engineers, and epidemiologists. Even these professionals have a hard time comprehending rare events and very large/small numbers in psychologically and personally meaningful ways.  Life is complicated and highly unpredictable, and we all try to make sense of it however we can, sometimes in seemingly inconsistent ways.

And you can call me Mr. Guilty too. At my institution’s Tumor Boards, I am infamous for frequently stating that I worry most about my low risk patients who undergo BRCA testing, since they always seem to test positive for a mutation while my highest risk patients almost never carry a mutation. Interestingly, in support of my paradoxical thinking, BRCA risk carrier prediction models tend to under-predict carrier status in low risk patients and over-predict carrier status in high risk patients, so perhaps my thought process is not entirely magical. Or maybe computers engage in magical thinking too.MR900283911

On a deeper psychological level, believing oneself to be a statistical outlier may be part of the general impulse to view oneself as special, a way of saying “I have an unusual trait that makes me different from others in an interesting way.” It may also be a defense mechanism to psychologically prepare for a bad outcome so that, should it occur, the individual is better prepared to deal with the stress.

The Resta Paradox serves to remind us of a lesson we seem to need to be reminded of repeatedly: Numbers, though a critical component of many genetic counseling sessions, are not the endpoint by which to measure the effectiveness of genetic counseling, but rather are the point at which genetic counseling begins. It’s not the number that matters; what is important is how and why that number matters to the patient.

* – Hey, it’s a lot better having an insightful paradox named after me than a medical syndrome.

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When Masters Degrees Roamed the Earth

This is the second post in our Clinical Doctorate series.  The first post can be found at Are Masters Degrees Going Extinct? 

The informal clinical doctorate survey in the DNA Exchange last summer provided some insight into the genetic counselor viewpoint and provided some results that will be interesting to compare with the formal survey from the Genetic Counseling Advanced Degree Taskforce in December.  Thank you to those who participated in our Clinical Doctorate survey.  And the results are…

A total of 254 genetic counselors voted:

  • Masters and then Clinical Doctorate as a later option (Clinical Doctorate as a Terminal Degree):  49.61% (126 votes)
  • Masters only (no change):  34.65% (88 votes)
  • Clinical Doctorate only (Clinical Doctorate as Entry Level Degree):  13.39% (34 votes)
  • Other :  2.36% (6 votes)

Almost half (49.61%) of voters supported making a Clinical Doctorate in Genetic Counseling available as a later option.  A total of 160 voters (63%) supported the option to create a Clinical Doctorate as either a later option or as the only option while 88 voters (34.65%) want to leave the current Masters in Genetic Counseling path as the only path.  It was unclear as to what the 6 votes (2.36%) for “other” was since all of those votes were left blank as to what the other options might support.

The small scale survey we did was not a scientific poll, but it does lead us to ponder the options.  Why are 160 out of 254 genetic counselors are motivated enough to vote for some version of a clinical doctorate?

One strong theory is professional development: Are we missing out on opportunities due to our degree?  Most of us have encountered or have friends who were unable to attend conferences like the Smith meeting, be considered for pharmaceutical clinical science associate positions, be considered for faculty positions at some institutions, or qualify for grants since we do not meet the requirement of having doctorates.  We meet every other single requirement for the position, but because doctorates alone hold such a high respect in the medical field, we are being excluded from opportunities.  The limitation is simply because the highest degree that we can reach is a Masters degree.

How frustrating to be limited not by ability, but by degree limitations.  Genetic counselors are trained in such a way that we can take on different specialties and roles.  Our flexible degree allows us to specialize in one tiny section of the genetic world OR broadly cover patients of all ages whether pregnant, affected by a genetic condition, or wondering about the impact of familial cancer.  Could an advanced practice clinical doctorate allow us even greater flexibility later in our careers?

One way to address this question is to look at the published literature of many different professions that now have clinical doctorates:  pharmacy, audiology, nursing, speech pathologists, occupational therapy, physical therapy, optometry, podiatry, and psychology.  There are some great online and peer reviewed articles out that detail the pros and cons of clinical doctorates overall and by discipline.  If you are interested, check out the great laundry list of resources that the Physician’s Assistants put together during their decision process http://www.innovationlabs.com/clinical_doctorate_summit/pre/resources.html#4a>

Some key pieces of information.  The American Academy of Audiology reports that practitioner incomes are increased since implementation of the clinical doctorate in audiology (AuD).  AuD graduates earned 13% more than pre-AuD counterparts did in 2006.  (http://www.audiology.org/news/Pages/20081027a.aspx)

Want your information in a slideshow?  Review Laura Conway and the GCADT’s slideshow that reviews the literature and has a slide summarizing the long term outcome impact of the clinical doctorates in PT, pharmacy, and audiology including increases in salary, male, and minority applicants.  < http://www.nsgc.org/Portals/0/Presentation%20Slides.pdf>.

Interesting in learning a little bit about how the physical therapists designed their transitional clinical doctorate? Go directly to the source, http://www.apta.org/PostprofessionalDegree/TransitionDPTFAQs/

What do all these resources tell us?  They tell us that there is some nice outcomes data about other disciplines and now genetic counselors in all stages of their career need to come together to decide if a Doctorate in Genetic Counseling (DGC) is good for our profession.

Stay tuned for a 3rd post in the Clinical Doctorate Series.  We will address GCADTF (Genetic Counselors Advanced Degree Task Force)’s plans to have a decision-making summit in 2013, explore the logistics of getting a clinical doctorate as a later option, and discuss some possible CD course load.

Co-authored by Dawn Laney and Kelly Rogel.  Dawn Laney  is a genetic counselor, research coordinator, and instructor at Emory University in the Department of Human Genetics.  Although she is a child of the computer age and is all for innovation she secretly prefers to use pen and paper to write rough drafts of anything creative.  Kelly Rogel is a graduate from Sarah Lawrence College’s Genetic Counseling program and is currently serving as a Peace Corps Volunteer Teacher for the Deaf  and HIV/AIDS Educator in Kenya and spends her free time learning more about how genetic services in Kenya can be expanded.

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Guest Post: Breaking the Glass Ceiling

By HEATHER HAMPEL and DAWN LANEY

MR900312416

Do you hear that sound?  It is the sound of hundreds of genetic counselors bumping their heads into the glass ceiling that our Master’s degrees can cause, particularly in academia.

For Heather, her first experience with this occurred within 2 years of graduating when she was working on a research study in colon cancer genetics.  Their collaborator did not believe she should be listed as a co-author simply because she did not have an MD or PhD.  Her boss fought for her and she got the authorship she had earned, but their collaborator’s genetic counselor was listed only in the Acknowledgements section despite her contributions to the study.

For Dawn, the thump against the glass ceiling occurred again recently when she received an email notification from a large, NIH funded, genetic disease network announcing that student trainee travel awards were being granted to their annual meeting.  Dawn wanted her genetic counseling fellow and first year genetic counseling student to attend this meeting, as they were working on relevant projects.  Sadly, a follow-up email arrived…only PhD, MD, PharmD, or other doctorate program students would qualify for travel awards.

We are genetic counselors.  That is all we ever wanted to be.  But over time, after many bumps against the ceiling, it has become clear that sometimes our Master’s degrees are holding us back.  We both considered PhD programs early on, however, we would have had to get one in a field other than genetic counseling in which we were not really interested.  Later, after having kids, buying homes, and working 40-60 hours/week, we simply could not cut down on hours or move our families in order to obtain a PhD in genetic counseling at one of the very few institutions that offer this degree.

So, it was a major transformational event when we attended an Educational Breakout Session on the Clinical Doctorate at the 2009 AEC.  Until then, we had not noticed the revolution quietly going on around us as other allied health professions were either converting to an entry-level Clinical Doctorate or adding an advanced degree Clinical Doctorate option.  This includes pharmacists (PharmD), physical therapists (DPT), audiologists (AudD), nursing (DNP), psychology (PsyD), and occupational therapists (OTD).  In fact, to our knowledge, the only allied medical profession that considered a Clinical Doctorate and decided against it are physician assistants, mainly since “both physicians and PAs practice in the domain of medicine; therefore, the entry-level doctorate for the practice of medicine is the MD or DO.”  Some of the potential pros for a Clinical Doctorate include:

  • Opportunities to advance career progression or career ladders – Of note, only 35% of genetic counselors reported being satisfied with their advancement opportunities in the 2012 National Society of Genetic Counselors Professional Status Survey,
  • Ability to obtain faculty appointments,
  • Ability to apply for grant funding
  • Ability to serve as the PI on an IRB-approved protocol
  • Increased status in the health care team
  • Address new developments – expanded knowledge base in rapidly progressing field
  • Gain ability to advance knowledge and skills in clinical practice and health care delivery

So, why not a Clinical Doctorate in Genetic Counseling – a DGC?  A specially designed, genetic counseling specific degree created for practicing genetic counselors to expand their medical and clinical research skills.  Imagine the possibility of obtaining a Clinical Doctorate through on-line, distance learning programs that can be taken in the evenings and on weekends from anywhere in the world.  Imagine getting credit toward the degree for the cases you have seen in your own practice.  Imagine courses directed at clinical-translational research.  To us, this option seems so much more accessible, affordable, and possible to do while working full-time.  We became convinced.

Originally, we thought that maybe genetic counselors should convert to an entry-level Clinical Doctorate so that we did not create a two-tiered system where some counselors had an MS and others had a DGC (To directly download a .pdf  that clarifies the distinction between entry level and advanced degree Clinical Doctorates published by the Association of Schools of Allied Health Professions, go to: http://www.asahp.org/docs/ASAHP%20re%20Clinical%20Doctorates.doc).  However, it has become clear that this would be problematic at present as some programs might have to close causing a reduction in the number of genetic counselors being trained.  In addition, it could potentially hinder licensure and reimbursement efforts.  We understand and appreciate this concern.  The last thing we want to see is a decrease in practicing genetic counselors, especially during a time when there is a great demand and need for our services.

However, this still leaves the open the possibility of the advanced degree Clinical Doctorate where those who wish to pursue the degree could do so. Just to be clear, we are not advocating for an advanced degree Clinical Doctorate instead of a PhD in genetic counseling – we are advocating for it, in addition to the PhD in genetic counseling.  We believe that there is need for both degrees as they serve different purposes and should be complementary as is the case in the nursing profession and psychology.  As to our prior concerns about a two-tiered system, we realize now that this already exists as some genetic counselors have PhDs and others do not.  In fact, this option seems to allow the most flexibility since counselors who do not want or need an advanced degree such as a Clinical Doctorate, would not need to obtain one.

So, what is the problem?  Well, it seems to us that the advanced degree Clinical Doctorate option is getting lumped in with the entry-level Clinical Doctorate and not being given due consideration.  In the survey from the Genetic Counseling Advanced Degree Task Force to the membership last month, it was difficult to respond if you support advanced degrees for genetic counselors.  The motion stated:

“A. Maintain the current standard – master’s as the sole entry-level degree/terminal degree; or

B. Move toward an entry-level clinical doctorate with elimination of the entry-level master’s degree.”

The use of the word “terminal” in option A seems to imply that there would be no opportunity for advanced degree options such as the Clinical Doctorate or PhD.  As a result, those supporting advanced degrees may have felt compelled to answer this item “B” even though they do support an entry-level Master’s degree, or to not answer at all.  In addition, the plenary session at the 2012 AEC was really focused on the entry-level CD and did not include much information about the option or impact of an advanced degree CD on the profession.

Afraid that the advanced degree Clinical Doctorate option was not being given enough consideration and that those of us who support it could not adequately convey our opinion to the Genetic Counseling Advanced Degree Task Force (GCADT) before they vote on this topic later this month, a small group of us designed a petition to offer those interested an opportunity to express their opinion:

https://www.change.org/petitions/support-an-advanced-degree-clinical-doctorate-for-genetic-counseling

Why a petition?  It seemed like the easiest way to obtain multiple signatures on a single document and much more considerate to the GCADT than an individual letter writing campaign which would have caused a barrage of e-mails or letters to members of the GCADT.  As of today, 129 individuals have signed the petition and the number continues to grow as the petition gets passed along informally from one genetic counselor to the next.  There have been many lovely responses but we’d like to share this one from a former genetic counselor in Australia:

After completing my masters at UCHSC I worked in Canada for 7 years then wanted to further my knowledge and skills. There were no advanced GC programs so instead I quit genetic counselling and returned to school to study medicine. Now a doctor, I miss genetics but will likely not return to it.

And so, as we close, we hope that the clinical doctorate, as an advanced degree, stays on the table in future discussions about advanced training for genetic counselors.  We also hope we begin to hear a new sound – the sound of us tap, tap, tapping away, trying our best to break that glass ceiling.

Heather Hampel, MS, CGC is the Associate Director of the Division of Human Genetics and Professor in the Department of Internal Medicine at The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center.  She is a former member of the Board of Directors of NSGC (Region IV Representative in 2003-4) and of ABGC (2007-2011) where she served as President in 2009 and 2010.  She received the Region IV Leadership Award from NSGC in 2006.  She works in cancer genetics and her research interests involve universal screening for Lynch syndrome.  She and Dawn Laney just met in 2012 due to their shared interest in an advanced degree Clinical Doctorate option for genetic counselors.

Dawn Laney, MS, CGC, CCRC is the Lysosomal Storage Disease Program Leader and an Instructor in the Emory University Department of Human Genetics.  She is an active member and past co-chair of the NSGC metabolic and lysosomal SIG.  Dawn has just joined the research SIG and thoroughly enjoyed attending the meeting at NSGC.  In her work life, Dawn specializes in clinical research and the lysosomal storage diseases.  She loves being a genetic counselor and finds that is entirely consistent with her long-term thirst for knowledge.  In the usual “one degree of separation” genetic counselor way, Dawn has enjoyed meeting and discussion advancement opportunities with Heather Hampel and all the other GCs pondering the topic.

Also, see a previous DNA Exchange posting about the clinical doctorate in genetic counseling.

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GENETICS and The Year in Review: My Top Ten Stories of 2012

In casual conversation, the phrase “it’s genetic” can mean any number of things.  It can serve as an excuse (‘don’t blame me, blame my parents!’) or a humblebrag (‘it’s a gift; I take no credit.’).   But most often, when people say “it’s genetic,” what they imply is: ‘that’s the way it is and there is nothing to be done about it.’

One promise of the Human Genome Project was to give us the means to fight back against this inevitability of genes, through prevention, mitigation and cure.  The first ten years post-HGP were full of revelation and technical achievement, and yet fell far short of that goal: for all that we learned, the lives of patients with genetic disease were essentially unchanged.  Now, news on a multitude of fronts brings the tantalizing prospect of progress.  Will we remember 2012 as the year when genetics fundamentally changed clinical medicine?  Probably not.  But the signs are there: treatments popping up like crocuses in the snow, new tests making their way from research only into the clinical realm, beta versions of technology that can — and will — do better.  And the other signs too: a growing intransigence from those who fear where these changes will take us, and a popular interest in testing that often takes the form of overestimating the scope and specificity of what genetics can tell us.  Progress – and pushback – is the story of 2012.

10.  IT CAN’T GET MORE PERSONAL THAN THIS: A GENETICIST ANALYZES HIMSELF AND SHOWS US SOMETHING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF PERSONALIZED MEDICINE – AND EVEN MORE ABOUT IT’S COST

In Cell, Stanford Professor Michael Snyder published a study with an n of 1 that, despite its limitations, effectively captured the yin and the yang of personalized medicine.  The ”n” in this case was Dr. Snyder himself, who followed himself over a 14-month period using “genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic, and autoantibody profiles” – a staggering array of tests, with an equally staggering price tag. Long story short, Dr. Snyder’s genomic information suggested an increased risk for type II diabetes, so despite the absence of any family history or other risk factors, the medical profile was expanded to include a state of the art glucose test.  And in fact, following a viral infection,  Dr. Snyder’s blood sugar did rise.  Diagnosed with IDDM, the doctor’s blood sugar levels normalized after several months with changes in diet and exercise.  What didn’t normalize?  His life insurance premiums, which rose precipitously after the diagnosis was made.

What is wonderful about this story?  Dr. Snyder – who, it should be said, is a co-founder of company producing interpretive tools for genome studies – says the study saved him from months of damage, and may have saved his life.  Of course, you don’t really know, which is the thing about anecdotal reports.  Consider that, in a sense, all of medicine up until now could be viewed as one giant study with a massive ascertainment bias – after all, most of what we know about treatment comes from sick people.  Does it make sense that early and focused intervention worked?  Yes, it does.  Do we know that cutting out desserts and doubling down on his bike riding actually “cured” him?  No, we don’t.  Because this sort of testing is unprecedented, I’m not sure we know if transient changes in glucose levels are so abnormal following a virus.  Is this what risk means in the context of skinny guys with no family history?  Because in the context of obesity and family history, I am not convinced that cutting out pie is a game-changer.

But despite all the questions that remain, the Snyder study demonstrated proof in principle that the combined power of clinical measures and genomics – genes and gene expression – creates more value than either of these two alone.  And unfortunately it also demonstrates proof in principle that personalized medicine approaches are, at present, prohibitively expensive.  Bringing down the cost of sequencing is only a first step – it will take across the board reductions in the cost of testing, analysis and follow-up medical care if personalized medicine is not to be a niche service for the fabulously wealthy (and a few lucky academics with funding from NIH!).

9. RICK SANTORUM BRINGS THE CULTURE WAR TO AMNIOCENTESIS

In February of 2012, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum went on the CBS News show Face the Nation and argued that employers who disapproved of prenatal diagnosis should not be compelled to pay for insurance policies that cover, say, amniocentesis.  An incremental extension of the argument against mandating insurance coverage for birth control which had become a hot button issue on the campaign trail, Santorum explained his opposition thusly: “Amniocentesis does, in fact, result more often than not in this country in abortion.”  Santorum, undeterred by the (modest) firestorm that greeted his results, doubled down on this position in a speech to the Christian Alliance: “One of the mandates is they require free prenatal testing in every insurance policy in America.  Why? Because it saves money in health care. Why? Because free prenatal testing ends up in more abortions and therefore less care that has to be done, because we cull the ranks of the disabled in our society.”

Okay, sure – it was silly season (aka, the Republican presidential primaries.  Remember Herman Cain?  Newt Gingrich and Ellis the Elephant?).  You might be inclined to dismiss this attack on prenatal diagnosis as nonsense.  Santorum certainly encourages us in our spirit of dismissiveness by getting his facts wrong – obviously MOST amnios don’t result in abortion.  Most amnios result in a reassuringly normal result.

But you know and I know that wasn’t what he meant.  Santorum is the father of a 4-year old with trisomy 18 (note to all

Photo credit: People.com

Photo credit: People.com

genetic counselors: yes, I agree with you; she probably is mosaic.  But I don’t know and neither do you.  So please stop asking).  He is a hero to a not inconsiderable segment of the population.  And his sentiments are not an anomaly.  And I am willing to bet that Santorum’s stand is not some last vestige of an outdated and ill-informed resistance to genetic medicine, but an early sign of the sort of intransigent hostility that advances in prenatal testing will engender.  The Obamacare requirement that insurance plans pay for amniocentesis is, Santorum said, “another hidden message as to what President Obama thinks of those who are less able.” Many people – real people, not caricatures, not Republican primary candidates – are worried about how genetic technology will be used, and what those choices say about how the world sees them.  Their fears will grow as our capabilities improve.  In focusing only on what Santorum got wrong, we risk ignoring the more significant subtext.  There are questions here that deserve a real response, minus the snark.  Genetics professionals need to be prepared to define themselves, or risk being defined by someone else.

8. CLARITY CHALLENGE: BIG DATA GETS COMPETITIVE

For years, discussion of the Archon X Prize for DNA sequencing has dominated sports-radio coverage of competitive genetics.  But this year, the annual handicapping of the Archon race (to sequence 100 genomes in 30 days or less, at a per-genome recurring cost of $1000 or less, to be decided once and for all in September 2013 and I don’t know about you but I am SO OVER IT) had to share the geek sports fan base with a new event: the Clarity Challenge.  In January 2012, Boston Children’s Hospital invited researchers around the world to analyze the DNA sequence data from 3 children with unknown genetic disorders.  Entrants were judged for their success in identifying genes or candidate genes for each child, and their ability to present their findings in a clear and accessible fashion.

The winner (Brigham and Women’s Hospital Division of Genetics – always nice for the crowd when the hometown team wins) was announced November 7 – PERHAPS YOU MISSED IT, as the press was inexplicably preoccupied with the U.S. presidential election, which occurred on November 6th.  Brigham’s team was praised for the clarity of its reports – a deciding factor, despite the fact that one of the runner-ups was actually the only team to identify putative deleterious mutations for all three kids.  More importantly, the competition highlighted the growing need for sophisticated and high quality analysis to complement the increasing quantity of sequence data.  The take-home from the Clarity Challenge is this: generating strings of A’s, C’s, T’s and G’s may be a technical tour de force, but only analysis will turn data into information, and provide clinical relevance.  For one child, the competition did result in a diagnosis after a 10-year medical odyssey – a success, but a qualified success, since the mutation for a muscle-wasting disease was identified by only 8 of 23 qualified groups participating.  Hailed as proof in principle of the power of DNA whole genome sequencing, the Clarity Challenge also illustrated the lack of universal standards for analysis (not to mention for handling tricky details like non-diagnostic findings unrelated to the presenting medical issue).

Mo’ data, mo’ problems, kids.  Having identified a serious issue that isn’t going away anytime soon, the Clarity Challenge is rumored to be gearing up for competition #2: the cancer genome analysis.  Great idea!  And guys — using a combination of computer simulations and a careful reading of the literature – in this case, the U.S. Constitution – I predict that the next presidential election will be held on November 8th, 2016.  PR protip: you might want to pick a different week to make any major announcements.

7. EU APPROVES A STEM CELL THERAPY FOR CLINICAL USE

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Photo credit: Pharmafile.com

European Commission approval of Glybera, a stem cell therapy for familial lipoprotein lipase deficiency, marks a big step forward for the field, which had a tough year in 2011 when the first US trial of a stem cell therapy was shut down early as stem cell pioneer Geron withdrew to focus on experimental cancer therapies.  Poor stem cells!  It’s hard to be dumped for more lucrative therapeutics.  But researchers in stem cell therapy headed back to the gym – I mean the lab – and came back looking strong in 2012.  Reports suggest that a number of therapies have shown promise in clinical trials, including a publication in The Lancet describing a human embryonic stem cell therapy from Advanced Cell Technology that has showed early success treating retinal damage from macular degeneration.

6. TARGETED THERAPY: FDA APPROVES KALYDECO

vinylmation

Lots of reasons NOT to get excited about Kalydeco, the Vertex pharmaceuticals drug approved by the FDA in January 2012.  Sure the drug improves outcome measures for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) – but only for those carrying the G551D mutation, a paltry 4% of individuals with CF in the United States today.  And what’s with the name?  It sounds like the Disney mascot for Epcot’s Visual Hallucinations Pavilion.

Photo credit: Drugs.com

Photo credit: Drugs.com

But Kalydeco, despite these limitations, is a leading indicator of growth for a whole category of targeted pharmaceuticals.  The Vertex product is the first approved drug to act by correcting the underlying genetic defect rather than ameliorating symptoms.
The strengths and the limitations of Kalydeco are its specificity; it restores the ability of the mutated CFTR protein produced by G551D to unlock the ion channel that is lost in CF.  Kalydeco, which represents the sort of therapeutic breakthrough everyone hoped would follow organically from a better understanding of disease pathophysiology, is a hopeful sign for all CF patients – a version aimed at the more common DeltaF508 mutation is reportedly in the works – and a hopeful sign for anyone who ever dreamed that we might someday talk about a “cure” for genetic disease.

5. TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE MAKES GREAT STRIDES (IN ANIMAL STUDIES)

The new Francis Collins Initiative for Translational Medicine in Rodents got off to a flying start in 2012:

In Italy, researchers grew kidney-like “organoids” that performed many of the same functions as kidneys when transplanted – in rats.

A new drug tested by researchers at Washington State showed promise in treating Alzheimers Disease – in rats.

Scientists at the University of Michigan used gene therapy to develop a sense of smell to successfully treat congenital anosmia – in mice.

Researchers at UCSD debuted an RNA interference drug that reduced the severity of symptoms for Huntington’s disease – in mice …

And two groups (one in California; the other in Spain) demonstrated success using engineered zinc finger proteins to block production of the mutant huntingtin gene product – in mice.

A molecular embryologist in Brussels reestablished absent thyroid function through transplant of thyroid tissue engineered in the lab – in mice.

Blind mice see!  Vision restored after transplant of rod-cell precursors – mice (blind mice!).

Photo credit: Wired.com

Photo credit: Wired.com

Deaf gerbils hear!  Hearing restored using human embryonic stem cells to replace damaged auditory cells – in gerbils.

Diabetic mice cured!  Insulin dependency ended with transplant of pancreatic stem cells – in mice.

Truly, has there ever been a better time to be a rodent? 

 4. FETAL GENOME SEQUENCED THROUGH NON-INVASIVE PRENATAL TESTING

In an article published in Nature in July, 2012, researchers from Stanford announced  full genome sequencing done on fetal DNA drawn from the maternal blood stream – DNA, in other words, that could be obtained without invasive testing.  Several tests using non-invasive prenatal testing are already on the market, notably Sequenom’s MaterniT21 PLUS, the success of which drove a 68% increase in corporate revenue in the 3rd quarter of 2012 as compared to 2011 numbers.  Despite their commercial appeal, these beta versions of targeted non-invasive testing are still working out their kinks – amniocentesis or CVS are still needed as a follow-up to any positive MaterniT21 result – but the Stanford University researchers’ accomplishment drives home the potential of this technology to transform prenatal testing in the not-so-distant future.  Earlier, safer and more inclusive, this testing modality is likely to be a game changer that radically increases both the number of pregnant couples opting for testing, and the range of conditions included in a prenatal assessment.

3. BEHAVIOR ‘OMICS:  IN SEARCH OF A GENE FOR EVIL

On Friday, December 14th, Adam Lanza, a 20-year old loner described by former teachers as “intelligent, but nervous and fidgety,” took guns belonging to his mother and shot her four times in the head.  Then, for reasons we will never know, he took her car to the Sandy Hook Elementary School, shot his way through a locked door, and massacred 20 children and 6 adults and then himself with a systematic efficiency and precision that belied the random nature of the attack.  Sixteen of the children killed that day were 6 years old; the other four had already turned 7.

“Who would do this to our poor little babies?” asked Mrs. Feinstein, a Newtown teacher of 11 years.  For that question, no satisfactory answer would – or could – emerge.  Anecdotal reports of mental illness filtered out from people who had known Adam Lanza – he had a developmental disorder; he had autism; he was diagnosed with Aspergers.  Ten days after the attack, the Connecticut Medical Examiner sent a request to University of Connecticut scientists for help investigating Adam Lanza’s DNA.  “Geneticists Studying Connecticut Shooter’s DNA” ran the CNN headline on December 28th.  The article reported the consensus of the genetics community – no single genes existed that would be diagnostic for mental illness, and no single DNA sample could begin to establish variants or markers associated with violence – or any other behavior of a complex creature in a complex world.

DNA sequencing will shed no light on the painful question of why, but the use of sequencing in this context will color the public perception of genetics, with potentially dangerous consequences.  Ultimately, it is the headline that endures – the headline that suggests that some genetic quirk, some error in his code, some defect we can use to identify and root out the monsters among us — was the cause of this most horrific act.  It is far from the first headline of 2012 to imply genetic determinism (“Binge drinking gene’ discovered” proclaims the BBC; “As GOP convention begins, a look at how genes influence politics” trumpets the LA Times) but the Newtown tragedy illustrates most fully the potential for stigma and discrimination that accompany a reductive view of the relationship between genes and behavior.

 2. WHOLE EXOME SEQUENCING: AN INTERIM TECHNOLOGY GETS ITS MOMENT (BARELY)

 This was supposed to be about whole exome sequencing (WES) announcing its presence with authority in the clinical setting in 2012.  In May, David Goldstein et al published an article in the Journal of Medical Genetics documenting a high rate of success using WES to find diagnoses for patients with unexplained, apparently genetic conditions. Their exploratory studied considered a number of important, difficult issues: filtering of variants, variants of uncertain significance, communication of results to families, detection of carrier status and other non-diagnostic findings, obligations for re-contact.  Results were lauded as not only explanatory but in some cases “interesting” – the holy grail of academic research.

This story was supposed to be about WES, having its moment as the field transitions from targeted gene testing to whole genome analysis.  But everywhere I looked there it was, whole genome sequencing (WGS), hanging around the gym, saying “ooh, ooh coach – put me in!  put me in!”  Was 2012 the year of WES?  Well, yes! … but it was also the year when WGS with a 50-hour turn-around time was introduced for use in neonatal emergencies – and immediately declared standard of care for the neonatal intensive care unit at Children’s Mercy Hospital in Kansas City MO, where the pilot study was done.  And it was the year when the 1000 Genomes Project published data drawn from the WGS of over 1000 participants (thus the name), giving us what Genome Web Daily described as data that “made it possible to identify almost all of the variants found in as few as 1 percent of the population.”  Congratulations, WES!  Your moment has come.  Just don’t blink.

1. ENCODE: IDENTIFYING THE UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS

Remember “junk DNA”?  Me neither.  I am almost certain that none of us ever believed in the preposterous idea that the 98% of the human genome not coding for genes is a vast trash heap of discarded genes and chromo-babble.  A giant sea of artifacts and nonsense, meticulously copied by each dividing cell – surely this model defies everything we understand about the parsimony of the natural world?  For this reason alone biologists as a group instinctively knew the notion to be false.  At least, that is how I recall it.  As Lizzie Bennett says in Pride and Prejudice, “in cases such as these, a good memory is unpardonable.”

In September 2012, an international consortium of researchers organized by the NHGRI and wrangled by “cat-herder-in-chief” Ewan Birney of the European Bioinformatics Institute produced the first edition of the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE), in the unprecedented form of 30 articles published simultaneously in 3 cooperating journals: Nature, Genome Biology and Genome Research.  The combined publications constituted a first peek into the mysteries of the 98%, examining the expression and modification of non-coding DNA on a cell- and tissue-specific basis, identifying sequences receptive to chemical modification,  promoters of gene transcription, and all manner of transcriptionally active DNA signatures whose significance – if they have a significance – remains entirely speculative.  All together, it is an ambitious cataloguing of what Eric Green at NHGRI described as elements “involved in the complex molecular choreography required for converting genetic information into living cells and organisms.”

What is the take-home message of ENCODE?  That “not translated into protein” is not the same as “unused.”  In fact, the combined studies suggested that 80% of those shadowy untranslated regions were in fact transcribed into RNA – with a quarter of those RNA elements having known functional relevance.  As for the rest — well, some of it is regulatory – for instance, ENCODE documented a vast number of switches, used to turn genes on or off.  But for much of the genomic activity documented by ENCODE, all that one can say is that it exists.  Does it have functional implications for individuals?  The jury is out (and bickering).

The are so many reasons why ENCODE is the top genetics story of 2012.  It is on-trend as a BIG DATA story, producing raw DNA sequence data that required more than 300 total years of computer time to analyze – an illustration of the increased need for analytic skills that will follow as the celebrated technical achievements of the past decade become, in a flash, merely the norm.  The searchable ENCODE database is a model of open access – another 2012 hot topic.  And the project demonstrates that, despite a certain amount of clamor to the contrary, the most significant work in genetics today is a giant research project and several steps removed from clinical application.

In the dark years before the Human Genome Project, inebriated geneticists offered up back-of-the-cocktail-napkin approximations about the number of genes we carry, and every one of them was wrong.  Eighty thousand?  One hundred thousand?  Nope.  The final tally was more like 22,000 genes – and so unless we are prepared to declare ourselves less complicated than a water flea (31,000 genes), this can only mean one thing: that the architecture of human complexity is not derived solely from the blueprint laid out in our genes.  ENCODE, as a search for answers beyond the coding regions of our genomes, is a natural extension of the HGP, a first attempt to move beyond answers that lie solely in the exome.

For me, here is what makes ENCODE the genetics story of the year: it is both a beginning and an end.  The publication of ENCODE is a commencement ceremony for the HGP age – a moment in time when you come to the end of something and realize it is only the beginning of a greater journey.  The information it contains, while vast, is a mere sprinkling of breadcrumbs for others to follow.  But the trail it leaves shows us what we do not know.  Unknown unknowns are true ignorance – the sort of ignorance that leads us into a belief like “junk DNA.”  ENCODE is a great next step – the elucidation of what we do not know.  To a geneticist with exome data, like a man with a hammer, everything looks like a gene.  For ten years we have been hitting those nails hard.  ENCODE is a look beyond, to a wider array of targets, a wonderful acknowledgement of how much we do not know.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is genetics in 2012!  Let me know what I’ve missed….

[Follow me on twitter: @laurahercher]

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As a Genetic Counselor, Would You Go Public With Your Genome?

A Canadian version of the Personal Genome Project (PGP) was launched earlier this month. This is an initiative that, for one key reason, is likely to have a rippling effect for the genetic counseling profession. Modelled after and in collaboration with George Church and his group at Harvard, the project aims to recruit 100,000 volunteers to have their whole genome sequenced and posted publicly online for the advancement of research. As someone who has followed the US Personal Genome Project from the outset, I’m thrilled that Canadians will now be able to participate in this important research.

So why is the Canadian version of this project so important for genetic counselors specifically? Because the first participant (whom the media has aptly named Canuck One) to bravely volunteer to “bare her genomic soul” and forgo any form of anonymity while doing it, is a genetic counselor. Jill  Davies and her involvement with PGP-Canada was profiled in The Globe & Mail (one of Canada’s largest national newspapers) earlier this month.

Globe and Mail PGP-1

In full disclosure, Jill Davies is a close colleague and friend (and also a previous guest contributor to The DNA Exchange). The Medcan Clinic genetics program has been involved in the PGP-Canada project from the outset, and therefore it is no coincidence that Jill happens to be participant number 1. But it is also precisely the fact that she is a genetic counselor that the PGP team was keen to have Jill step up to the plate. Who knows the potential implications—clinical, ethical, legal and social—of whole genome sequencing better than a GC? Beyond immersing herself into her work (quite literally), Jill’s participation will undoubtedly help raise awareness of the genetic counseling profession, which is something that I think should be celebrated.

Not surprisingly, with the potential to have my own whole genome sequenced hitting closer to home, I’ve been thinking a lot about whether this is something I would go through with, and if not—why?

The Globe & Mail has done an excellent job in asking the general public this very same question. In conjunction with the official start of the PGP-Canada project, the newspaper launched a widespread interactive media series — The DNA Dilemma—running from December 8 to December 22. This is one of the biggest and most comprehensive genomics-related media series I’ve seen. It is really worth the look at the articles and commentary. They have even developed a genomics game: Win, Lose or Genome?

By far the most interesting component to the series for me is the Infographic-type Poll on whether people would choose to have their genomes sequenced. Of the 1000+ respondents so far, a whopping 80% say they would have sequencing, and 70% believe the benefits outweigh the risks (you can filter the results based on age, gender, location etc). As a genetic counselor I find these numbers fascinating (and surprisingly high).

Globe and Mail Poll

My hunch is that if we polled GCs specifically, this number would be lower. There are so many interesting questions about why this might be—is it because we are more informed? Is it because we are a self-selected group who are more attuned (and potentially concerned about) the ethical issues associated with genetics to begin with? If I had the skills to create such a beautifully intricate poll as the one above I would, but I’ll have to make do with the standard DNA Exchange poll to test my theory. So—what do you say? Would you participate in the PGP?

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To Improve Care for Your High Risk HBOC Patients, You Don’t Need the Supreme Court: It Is All in Your Hands — and In Your Files

What happens in 2015 when the essential Myriad patents on BRCA 1 and 2 expire? 

Think about it a while.   What are you imagining?  Lower costs, better tests, quicker turn-around times?  A single panel covering all breast cancer susceptibility genes?  An end to unhappy conversations with patients trying to explain why the process can’t be simpler and cheaper?

While you mull over your utopian fantasies of a patent-free universe, keep this in mind: Myriad has been thinking about it for a while now.  After all, BRACAnalysis remains close to 90% of their total revenue, so it’s probably on the minds of Myriad executives.  It certainly was on their minds at Goldman Sachs when they listed Myriad Genetics as a sell in February 2011

Does Myriad have a plan?  It sure looks like it.  In 2006, Myriad ceased to publish BRCA variant information, and ended their relationship with the open-access Breast Cancer Information Core (BIC) database.  Since then, they have assembled a private repository of genotype-phenotype information that seems to be a central component of its strategy for future earnings.  How central?  Well, Dan Vorhaus et al at the Genomics Law Report speculated back in 2011 that a strategy of relying on their “vast—and currently proprietary—database of BRCA test data, including VUS data” was behind the company’s decision not to even bother fighting patent infringement in Europe, citing Myriad CEO Peter Meldrum’s emphasis on “other competitive factors” as an alternate strategy for competitive advantage.

Forget about the ACLU lawsuit, and next-gen sequencing and all the other changes you have read about that may affect genetic testing going forward.  Get the DNA sequence data wherever you want, and however you want, and as cheaply as you can, but as long as Myriad has sole control of the information needed to provide analysis, no other company will be able to challenge them on a competitive basis.

 Is this fair?  Well, it is an end run around the philosophical basis of patent protection, which is meant to provide a 20 year window of unfettered commercial use in return for a free and open sharing of information to stimulate further innovation.  But it is not illegal.  Myriad controls their database, and can’t be compelled to share.  They own the database – but NOT the information.  The information is out there – in report after report after report, languishing in the files of thousands of clinical cancer specialists.  In other words, YOU HAVE IT.

 So now, some exciting news.  Dr. Robert Nussbaum at UCSF is spearheading an effort to collect BRCA 1 and 2 variant data in ClinVar, an accessible archive of anonymized genotype/phenotype information hosted by the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI).  While the goals of ClinVar are very broad – to aggregate information about sequence variation and its relationship to human health – Dr. Nussbaum’s goal are quite specific: to assemble a list of BRCA 1 and 2 variants found since 2005, along with information classifying them as benign, pathogenic, or unknown. 

 But THIS ONLY WORKS AS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT.  Dr. Nussbaum has contacted 600 clinicians involved in clinical care of HBOC patients (so far, 26 centers have contributed over 3000 BRCA 1/2 variants).  With their cooperation and yours, ClinVar could amass a database to rival that of Myriad, ushering in an era of genuine access to unrestricted, competitively priced information for our patients.  How great is that? 

 To get involved, contact Dawn Lee, a genetic counselor at Partners Center for Personalized Genetic Medicine who is working with Dr. Nussbaum.  Here is her contact information:

Dawn Lee

DLEE30@PARTNERS.ORG

617-768-8548

You can get all the important specifics from Dawn, but for those of you who are interested, I’ve made a stab at some FAQ’s:

 WHAT EXACTLY IS BEING COLLECTED?

This project is limited to collecting information on the variant, identifying it using cDNA and/or genomic numbering, and its classification in a 3-tier scale as benign, pathogenic/deleterious or unknown (some reports use a 5-tier scale including possibly benign and possibly pathogenic, which is also good).  The goal is to capture each variant one time per family.

 IS THIS OK?  ISN’T IT A HIPAA VIOLATION?

Great question!  HIPAA does not place any restrictions on the disclosure of information that is de-identified.  For this reason, no names or other identifiers will be collected, including familial information or the name of the facility where the patient was seen.  Does this mean that the clinician who orders the test has the right to use it in this way?  “Ownership of Information’ issues are governed by state laws, and you can check out your state regulations in this 50-state survey of state laws governing the  collection, storage and use of human tissue specimens by the National Cancer Institute but – spoiler alert – Dr. Nussbaum thinks the answer is yes, in all states.

DO WE NEED IRB APPROVAL?

Poor IRB’s!  Everybody hates them so much.  Don’t you think that is hurtful to their feelings?  Sure, lots of people are doing this data collection without IRB approval.  Those people are following Federal Regulation 46.101(4) from the Office for Human Research Protections, which specifies as exempt: “Research involving the collection or study of existing data,documents, records, pathological specimens, or diagnostic specimens, if these sources are publicly available or if the information is recorded by the investigator in such a manner that subjects cannot be identified, directly or through identifiers linked to the subjects.”  But does anyone ask the IRB how this makes them feel? 

IS THIS GOING TO BE A HUGE PAIN IN THE ASS?

First of all, if you have the reports in electronic form, it should be pretty straightforward.  If you have them on paper, you have to make de-identified copies, which means masking the names in two places (Dr. Nussbaum suggests post-it notes).  Dawn reports that there is a small stipend available for paying someone (contact her) – I suggest genetic counseling students (if you are in the NY area, contact me).  And – wait this is exciting! – the next 20 centers to provide >200 variants will receive an Ipad mini. 

 WHY NOT COLLECT MORE PHENOTYPIC INFORMATION?

Why indeed?  Why not report age of onset or bilaterality?  And if you are going to do that, you might as well check for hormone status.  It’s like that child’s book, “If You Give a Mouse a Cookie.”  If you give a researcher laterality, he is going to want oncogene status.  If you give her oncogene status, she is going to want response to treatment data.  The limited goals of this project make it easier for more people to participate (see IS THIS GOING TO BE A HUGE PAIN IN THE ASS?, above), and thus  to advance the primary goal.

 

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Guest Post: Information Detoxification

By KATIE STOLL
Katie Stoll is a genetic counselor in Washington State. She graduated from the Brandeis University training program in 2003 and since that time has held positions in the areas of prenatal, pediatric and cancer genetics.
 

I did not have a vision of motherhood from a young age. In fact, I don’t think I really even considered the idea of having kids until some unexpected biological switch flipped in me. Do you remember that scene in the 2009 Disney Pixar film, Up when Ellie and Carl are watching the clouds roll by and suddenly they all start to resemble babies? That is the way I remember feeling. It was as if out of the blue, having a baby was all I could think about.

Although this need to have a baby seemed to come from some emotional and primitive place, I wanted to be organized about my approach. I scheduled a “preconception” appointment and asked my husband about his thoughts on genetic screening. As a genetic counselor working in a prenatal setting, testing guidelines were imbedded in my mind – and I knew very well what testing options should be available to me. My husband thoughtfully asked, “If we are both carriers for cystic fibrosis or something else, does that mean that we are not going to have a baby?”

Whoa. What would we do if were both carriers??

While I am incredibly grateful that my husband was insightful enough to have asked this question, it is humbling for me to admit that it was him and not me who brought this to the table. After all, isn’t this genetic counseling 101? I realize now that while I had considered this question hypothetically many times previously, without the vision of parenthood, I did not appreciate its magnitude.

What followed were many conversations about how we felt about assisted reproductive technology and prenatal diagnosis.  We tried to imagine what it would be like to have a baby with a genetic condition or disability. What it would be like not to have a baby. These conversations were pivotal for me both personally and professionally. It was then that I truly began to realize the tremendous and complex affect these once seemingly “simple tests” may have.

Professional guidelines regarding prenatal/preconception screening emphasize the importance of informed and autonomous decision making . The listed critical components of the informed consent process often focus on statistical risks and the clinical details of the condition being screened for. Underemphasized is the importance of consideration of what this testing will mean for the individual or couple. How might a positive test affect their hopes and dreams?  How might it change their path in pregnancy?

When an individual would use results to facilitate reproductive decisions, testing can be empowering. What is sometimes overlooked in our well-intentioned goals to provide patients with knowledge however, is the potential harm and disempowerment that may result when testing information is not desired.

Currently a minority of our patients will have an abnormal test result but we must remember that the emotional impact for those individuals can be life changing. I have known many who meet abnormal or unclear results with guilt, fear and confusion.

The term “toxic knowledge” has been used to describe genetic information that individuals may regret learning, following a prenatal genetic test (Bernhardt 2012). With the flood of new testing options, I am concerned about the potential increase of toxic knowledge and how this will play out in people’s lives. How will it change the pregnancy experience?  The relationship between parent and child? The way people view themselves?

I know very well the comfort and safety that can be found in the scientific facts, procedures, clinical prognosis and statistics.  There is so much information that is important for us to convey. I write to encourage you to go a step beyond that information and to delve into the heart of what this testing may be about for the person sitting in front of you. That person may be a patient you are seeing for the very first time – it may be your spouse, your child or a dear friend.  It can be incredibly challenging to sit with someone and help them see how testing may impact their path in life, especially if that path seems very different from one you would take yourself. However, profound satisfaction may result through using your skills to support someone as they find their own way. What drew me initially to this field was a love of the science and my desire to share my knowledge with others. Although I still love this aspect of genetic counseling, what I now find most gratifying is working to advocate for the needs, hopes and dreams of the people I work with.

I imagine we have all had some personal experiences that have altered the way we practice as genetic counselors. I would love to hear your experiences and any thoughts you may have about toxic knowledge.

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